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India’s GDP grows by 7.1% in Apr-June quarter

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The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product(GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1, of 2016-17, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 29.17 lakh crore, as against Rs 27.24 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 7.1 percent. Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at constant (2011-2012) prices for Q1 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 27.38 lakh crore, as against Rs25.51 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 7.3 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

The economic activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q1 of 2016-17 over Q1 of 2015-16 are ‘manufacturing’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, ‘trade, hotels, transport & communication and services related to broadcasting’, ‘financial, insurance, real estate and professional services’ and ‘public administration, defence and other services. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, and ‘construction’ is estimated to be 1.8 per cent, (-) 0.4 percent, and 1.5 per cent respectively during this period.

GDP IN CURRENT PRICES

 

 

Item

APRIL-JUNE(Q1)
(`crore)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product for Q1

RATES OF GDP (%)
2014-152015-162016-172015-162016-17
1. Private Final Consumption

Expenditure(PFCE)

17010601898161211954459.860.5
2. Government Final Consumption

Expenditure(GFCE)

35353036437245291511.512.9
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation

(GFCF)

940407100471299351431.628.3
4. Change in Stocks5537158099642231.81.8
5. Valuables4766846526245121.50.7
6. Exports70626166587270194221.020.0
7. Less Imports79991475949173270123.920.9
8.Discrepancies-87827-103605-118497-3.3-3.4
GDP291655631746453505453100.0100.0
GDP (% change over previous year) 8.810.4  

Industry analysis

The first quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Rabi season of 2015-16 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC), abridged financial results of listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor general of India (CAG) for the period April-June 2016-17. Performance of key sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport etc., communication, banking and insurance during the period April-June 2016-17 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during April-June 2016-17 based on data received from BSE/NSE have been taken into account. Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, Profit before tax and depreciation of listed companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the corporate sector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.

GVA IN BASIC PRICES

 

 

Industry

APRIL-JUNE(Q1)
(` crore)

Gross Value Added for Q1

Percentage change Over previous year Q1
2014-152015-162016-172015-162016-17
1.agriculture,forestry & fishing3584823676233743902.61.8
2.mining & quarrying7970886444860918.5-0.4
3.manufacturing4186824492804901647.39.1
4.electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services5485357037623784.09.4
5.construction2135762256372290925.61.5
6.trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting43947448323852261010.08.1
7.financial, insurance, real estate &        professional services5319335814716359639.39.4
8.Public administration, defence & other services2838263007053376305.912.3
GVA at Basic Price2380534255143527383187.27.3

GVA AT CURRENT PRICES

 

 

 

Industry

APRIL-JUNE(Q1)
(`crore)

Gross Value Added for Q1

Percentage change Over previous year Q1
2014-152015-162016-172015-162016-17
1.agriculture,forestry & fishing4403364663085043815.98.2
2.mining & quarrying9139396870976146.00.8
3.manufacturing4633264942255452296.710.3
4.electricity,gas,water supply & other utility services7287077069851905.810.5
5.construction2519722601512673753.22.8
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting5156575559226087147.89.5
7.financial, insurance, real estate &        professional services6182296609647312386.910.6
8.Public administration, defence & other services34942439035046009411.717.9
GVA at Basic Price2803207300185932998357.19.9

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

5.1 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 1.8 percent as compared to growth of 2.6 percent in Q1 2015-16. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GVA from agriculture in Q1 of 2016-17, the production of rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses registered growth rates of (-)7.7 percent, 8.1 percent, (-)9.7 percent and (-)4.2 percent respectively during the Rabi season of agriculture year 2015-16 (which ended in June 2016). Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds registered a growth of 4.7 per cent during the Rabi season of 2015-16. The crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 58.0 percent of GDP in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector. Around 42.0 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of about 3.7 percent in Q1 of 2016-17.

Mining and quarrying

5.2. Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector grew by (-)0.4 percent as compared to growth of 8.5 percent in Q1 2015-16. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas and IIP mining registered growth rates of 5.4 per cent, (-)3.3 percent, (-)6.1 percent and 2.3 percent, during Q1 of 2016-17. As per the available information, private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as estimated for major listed companies of BSE and NSE at current prices was (-) 24.0 percent in Q1 2016-17.

Manufacturing

5.3 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 9.1 percent as compared to growth of 7.3 percent in Q1 2015-16. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 75 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE is 11.9 percent at current prices during Q1 of 2016-17 as against 5.5 percent in Q1 of 2015-16. The quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which has a share of over 20 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP manufacturing registered growth rate of (-) 0.7 per cent during Q1 of 2016-17.

Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services

5.4 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from ‘Electricity ,Gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector grew by 9.4 percent as compared to growth of 4.0 percent in Q1 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 9.0 per cent during Q1 of 2016-17 as compared to 2.3 percent in Q1 of 2015-16.

Construction

5.5 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 1.5 percent as compared to growth of 5.6 percent in Q1 2015-16. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 5.7 per cent and 0.3 percent, respectively, during Q1 of 2016-17 as compared to 1.4 percent and 5.6 percent respectively, in Q1 of 2015-16.

Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting

5.6. Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from this sector grew by 8.1 percent as compared to growth of 10.0 percent in Q1 2015-16. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth. As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection grew by 6.9 percent during Q1 of 2016-17. Indicator used for estimating GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector. The private corporate sector growth in the hotels and restaurant sector as estimated from available data from listed companies with BSE and NSE at current prices is 3.1 percent during Q1 of 2016-17. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rate of (-)8.8 per cent and (-)1.6 percent respectively during Q1 of 2016-17. In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major ports registered growth rates of 18.3 percent, 8.2 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively, during Q1 of 2016-17. Sales of commercial vehicles registered 13.0 percent growth during Q1 of 2016-17.

Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services

5.7 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from this sector grew by 9.4 percent as compared to growth of 9.3 percent in Q1 2015-16. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 73.9 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for computer related activities which as estimated from available data from listed companies with BSE and NSE at current prices is 9.6 percent, respectively, during Q1 of 2016-17. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 9.7 per cent and 9.4 per cent, respectively as on June 2016.

Public administration, defence and other services

5.8 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from this sector grew by 12.3 percent as compared to growth of 5.9 percent in Q1 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector namely, union government revenue expenditure grew by 24.3 percent during Q1 of 2016-17 as compared to 2.4 percent in Q1 of 2015-16.

(b) At current prices

6. GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in Q1 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 35.05 lakh crore, as against Rs 31.75 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 10.4 percent. GVA at Basic Price at current prices in Q1 of 2016-17, is estimated at Rs 33.00 lakh crore, as against Rs30.02 lakh crore in Q1, 2015-16, showing an increase of 9.9 per cent. Growth in collection of Union Excise duties, custom duties and service tax was 61 percent, 18 percent and 29 percent respectively in Q1, 2016-17 as against 104 percent, 22 percent and 14.2 percent in Q1 2015-16. Major subsidies grew by 53 percent in Q1 of 2016-17 as against decline of 26 percent in Q1, 2015-16.

(c) Price indices used as deflators

The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups – food articles, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 7.0 per cent, (-) 19.2 percent, 1.1 per cent,1.1 per cent and 1.2 percent, respectively during Q1 of 2016-17 over Q1 of 2015-16. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 5.7 per cent during Q1 of 2016-17 over Q1 of 2015-16.

II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

The components of expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs21.19 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against Rs18.98 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs16.06 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against Rs15.04 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2016-17 are estimated at 60.5 per cent and 55.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.8 per cent and 55.2 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2015-16.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs4.53 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against Rs3.64 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16.At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs3.49 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against Rs2.94 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant(2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2016-17 are estimated at 12.9 per cent and 12.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 11.5 per cent and 10.8 percent each in Q1 of 2015-16.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs9.94 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against Rs10.05 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs8.64 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against Rs8.92 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015- 16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2016-17 are estimated at 28.3 per cent and 29.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 31.6 per cent and 32.7 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2015-16.

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