Five states in India have so far ‘flattened’ the Coronavirus curve in India, while the situation in nine states continues to be cause for concern.
In all, four states are seeing strong daily increases in COVID-19 numbers. These are Maharashtra and Gujarat — the most worrisome — as well as Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (see chart above).
Besides the four above, five states are seeing moderate increases in the number of active Coronavirus cases: Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar.
The two states that are seeing relatively stable number of COVID-19 cases, where things seem to be getting under control, are Karnataka and Jammu & Kashmir.
Finally, the states where things seem to be under control and are showing declines in the number of active COVID-19 cases are Kerala, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Haryana.
While there are several other states in India that are seeing increases or decreases in the number of COVID-19 cases, the total number of active cases in such states are below 60. As such, they can be managed with concerted action.
FLATTENING THE CURVE
The four states that are seeing declines in COVID-19 cases — Kerala, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Haryana — along with the two states where Coronavirus patient numbers are stable — Karnataka and Jammu & Kashmir — can be said to have flattened the curve.
A flattening of the curve indicates that the total number of people with active Coronavirus infection in the state is on the decline. This is the expected outcome from a 21-day lock-down.
A failure to flatten the curve, even after nearly a month under lock-down, means either than the lock-down was not followed properly in such states, or that there was a massive failure in terms of detecting Coronavirus cases in the early days of the lock-down, which is being rectified towards the end of the lock-down.
The central government can lift the lock-down only if the curve remains down-ward bound for at least 10 days.
So far, only two states — Kerala and Tamil Nadu — have shown such a phenomenon. While the curve started dipping in Kerala in early April, Tamil Nadu has seen a declining trend from around 15 April.
Delhi and Haryana, the latest entrants to the club, have seen declines for the last four days.