HOME > BUSINESS > Fitch says demonetization gains may not last

Fitch says demonetization gains may not last

demonetization

Fitch Ratings said the positive effects are unlikely to be strong and sufficiently enduring “to support credit profiles” and will impact GDP growth in the current quarter.

Though the gains will be substantial in the short-term, they may not last as people may still go back to their old ways after a while.

It said the move has the potential to raise government revenue and encourage bank lending.

“India’s sovereign credit profile would benefit from an improvement in government finances, which currently stand out as a major weakness. However, there are considerable uncertainties over the potential positive effects,” it said.

“Most importantly, demonetisation is a one-off event. People that operate in the informal sector will still be able to use the new high-denomination bills and other options (like gold) to store their wealth. There are no new incentives for people to avoid cash transactions. The informal sector could soon go back to business as usual.”

Fitch is not the only analyst house or expert to point out that the government needs to build on the gains it manages from the demonetization move. Many, therefore, have urged the government to put in place strict controls over the use of cash in large transactions after the demonetization move is over.

The withdrawal of bank notes – that account for 86% of the value of currency in circulation – has created a cash crunch, and seems to be holding back economic activity, Fitch said.

“Consumers have not had the cash needed to complete purchases, and there have been reports of supply chains being disrupted and farmers unable to buy seeds and fertiliser for the sowing season. Time spent queueing in banks is also likely to have affected general productivity. The impact on GDP growth will increase the longer the disruption continues, but we will already need to revise down our forecasts to reflect what will almost certainly be a weak 4Q16,” it said.

The ultimate aim of the note withdrawal was to curb the use of black money, which is in line with the government’s broader reform agenda. The informal sector is very large in India, accounting for over 20% of GDP and 80% of employment.

“The move could boost government revenue to the extent that demonetisation helps to move economic activity from the informal to the formal sector, as more earnings would be declared. It is possible that this positive effect would soon outweigh the drag on revenue collection from lower short-term GDP growth.

“Government finances may also benefit from a proportion of high-denomination notes not being traded. This potentially significant amount would be subtracted from the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) liabilities, and the authorities would have the option to transfer this windfall to the government.”

There are similar uncertainties over the impact on the banking sector.

“Some banks have already reported large increases in deposits since demonetisation began. A surge in low-cost funding may remove a constraint on banks that prevented lending rates from keeping pace with the RBI’s policy rate cuts in recent years. Reduced lending rates could encourage stronger credit growth, supporting the economy. Lower debt-servicing costs might also speed the resolution of banks’ asset-quality problems.”

However, demonetisation could also affect the ability of borrowers in sectors that rely on cash transactions to service their loans, with negative effects on bank asset quality, which is why the RBI has temporarily allowed banks to give small borrowers more time to repay loans before classifying them as non-performing, the rating agency added.

“Furthermore, the positive impact on funding conditions will depend on deposits remaining in banks beyond the next few months. There is nothing to prevent them being withdrawn again. Finally, there are other factors holding back lending, most notably the under-capitalisation of state-owned banks and weak investment demand. Fitch today reaffirmed our negative outlook on India’s banking sector – notwithstanding the effects of demonetisation – which reflects the fragile standalone position of state banks and the risks to their viability ratings in the absence of larger capital injections.”

Follow ULTRA.news
Petrol, LPG consumption up 10% in India; diesel, kerosene sees sluggishness The pace of growth in petroleum consumption slowed this year, but private retailers are getting ready to open more and more outlets, Fitch Ratings said.Consumption of petroleum products, such as diesel, petrol, LPG and kerosene, has been increasing at a rate of about 5% in I...
NDTV stock up 76% in four days, company says no clue why Shares of New Delhi Television Ltd spiked another 10% today to Rs 62.40, prompting the BSE to write to the company to seek clarification on any undisclosed development.With this, the total gain in NDTV shares in the last four days is 76%.The company, however, said it was...
India to announce new industrial policy in October The Indian government is likely to announce a new industrial policy in October, the ministry of commerce and industry said, and sought feedback from the public.Commerce and industry minister Nirmala Seetharaman will hold a final round of consultations with stakeholders soon,...
Modi’s reforms drag, power plants to face low loads, study India’s energy sector is facing low capacity utilisation in power generation as plant load factor is estimated to remain low at around 62 per cent until 2018-19, noted a recent ASSOCHAM-Crisil joint study.The study also expressed concern over the slow pace of reform implement...
UPDATE: 99% of demonetized currency returned to govt Eight months on, the Reserve Bank of India is yet to finish verifying and counting the 500- and 1000-rupee notes surrendered by the public between Nov 8 and Dec 30, 2016, the finance ministry said in a statement on Aug 11.UPDATE: About ten days after this article was publishe...
Expecting waivers, farmers stop paying back bank loans? The write-off of farm loans in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra seems to be encouraging farmers in other states to stop paying back their farm loans to make sure that they will get the benefits of any farm loan waiver program in their state. This has led to a sharp increase in farm ...
IT companies using illegal tactics to force workers to resign: FITE The Forum for IT Employees, arguably the IT workers rights organization with the largest number of well-wishers and supporters, accused IT companies of using illegal and unethical means to force their workers to submit their resignations.In a meeting with Maharashtra Chief Mi...
Nawaz Sharif Proves Unlucky For The Third Time Nawaz Sharif is third time unlucky to have to abandon his term as the democratically elected Prime Minister of Pakistan.With the Supreme Court disqualifying him over the corruption cases for ten years, sixty-seven-year-old Sharif’s premiership comes to end one year before hi...
GST to hurt some sectors, no rating changes now – Fitch Fitch Ratings said the new Goods and Services Tax regime will hurt the oil & gas, pop-and-mom retail and small and medium enterprise segments, while benefiting auto, cement and organised retail sectors.However, it said it won't revise it ratings due to this at this point. ...
Demonetization took India forward by 3 years – SBI The demonetization of currency notes late last year has doubled the number of card transactions and helped push India's payment digitisation by three years, State Bank of India said in a note."Even after seven months post demonetization, the transaction value is quite large ...
Farm loan wavers can impact India’s financial profile – Fitch Ratings agency Fitch said the string of farm loan waivers announced by various Indian states could impact the financial profile of the country as a whole.The agency, however, did not directly say that the moves could lead to a downgrade in India's credit rating, which would i...
Axis Bank says 8 NPA accounts fingered by RBI owes it Rs 5,283 cr Axis Bank said eight of the 12 big defaulters highlighted by the Reserve Bank of India in its June 15 circular owed over Rs 5,000 cr to the bank.The RBI had given a list of 12 large accounts which together owed about 25% of the total bad loans of Indian banks. The total bad l...
RCom ‘respectfully disagrees’ with Fitch and Moody’s on its credit rating Anil Ambani-led Reliance Communications said it disagrees with the decision of agencies Moody's and Fitch to downgrade the company's credit rating based on its 'standstill agreement' with its lenders.Shares of RCom fell 4% to Rs 19.30 on the National Stock Exchange today ...
Fitch cuts IDBI Bank rating as NPAs climb to 21% Fitch Ratings said it downgraded IDBI Bank's Long-Term Default Rating and its 'viability rating' by one notch each to 'BB+' and 'ccc' with a stable outlook."IDBI Bank's Viability Rating reflects the deterioration of its financial profile in the last two years and our expectat...
Demonetization hits real estate builder prices, but not resale flats – report Demonetization of 500- and 1000-rupee notes hurt the real estate sector in North India, while its impact on the sector in South India was negligible, according to Magicbricks’ PropIndex for Jan-March 2017.The report, brought out by the eponymous real estate classifieds site, ...
Kapil Mishra to file FIR against Arvind Kejriwal Estranged Aam Aadmi Party leader Kapil Mishra said he will file a police complaint against Arvind Kejriwal today.The rebel AAP leader has accused the party supremo of taking bribes and acting like a dictator within the party."It is with a heavy heart that I am doing this,...
Fitch Ratings upgrades Tata Motors on improving business performance JLR contributes most of the company's profitsFitch Ratings has upgraded its rating on Tata Motors by one notch, pointing to the automaker's improving business performance."The upgrade reflects the sustained improvement in TML's Indian automotive business over the last tw...
Supreme Court dismisses Center’s reasons for not appointing Lokpal The Supreme Court has dismissed the government of India's stand that it cannot appoint the Lokpal as there was no leader of the opposition.The court's decision came on a bunch of petitions seeking the appointment of a Lokpal is likely to lead to the first ever appointment...
Mayank Gandhi delivers scathing message to Arvind Kejriwal From the video message of Mayank GandhiFormer compatriot and head of Aam Aadmi Party Maharashtra, Mayank Gandhi has assailed Arvind Kejriwal in an acerbic letter that traces the AAP leader's rise and fall over the last five years.Gandhi, who left the organization after fou...
Glaucus questions stock price of Hong Kong-listed Fullshare Holdings Ltd Glaucus Research Group, a California-based short seller, said it was selling Hong Kong-listed developer Fullshare Holdings due to peculiar trading patterns seen in the stock's counter."Fullshare is supposedly a commercial and residential property developer, but this business ...
Indian IT industry facing layoffs as conditions worsen, warns Assocham Trump unveiled his 'Buy American, Hire American' program yesterdayIndian IT companies are bound to see "some laying off" of their work force back home due to various negative forces impacting the industry, Assocham -- an association of various industries -- warned."With ...
Reliance Jio helped India save Rs 18,000 cr, but rivals took the hit Free services from Reliance Jio, the telecom services arm of Reliance Industries, brought down the amount of money paid by telecom subscribers in India by about Rs 4,400 cr in just the last three months of 2016, an analysis of the sector data revealed.The numbers indicate tha...
There’s no Lokpal because there’s no opposition leader, says govt Lokpal act was passed after massive demonstrations in 2013The Prime Minister's office today said the government has not appointed a Lokpal at the center yet as there is no leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha.According to the Lokpal and Lokayuktas Act passed in 2013...
Rs 1.7 lakh cr deposited via demonetization may not be withdrawn – SBI Monthly cash withdrawals for all banks | source:SBI ResearchThe Indian banking system is likely to get a permanent liquidity boost of Rs 1.7 lakh cr due to the demonetization of high-denomination bank notes, State Bank of India chief economic adviser said in a note to bank c...
Nearly a quarter of all food samples tested found fake or adulterated Food Adulteration and Testing in India, FY16Over one-fifth of all food samples tested in India's government labs in the last year were found to be fake or adulterated, according to numbers compiled from various state government food testing facilities by union government's d...